Mount Merapi is Due for an Eruption here in 2018

Posted May 29, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I am a loyal reader from Java. We have a big volcano here which has started to show life. The government has just put out a warning that it may erupt. I really find your work so interesting. You said 2018 would see a rise in volcanic activity along the Pacific rim of fire. Well, it appears after Hawaii, we could be next.

PM

REPLY: Yes. This particular volcano is like that of Hawaii insofar as it is much more active. Pyroclastic flow from a large explosions took place November 22nd, 1994. Another large eruption occurred in 2006, shortly before the Yogyakarta earthquake. There was also a large eruption in 2010 that changed the characteristic of Mount Merapi. Then on March 10th, 2014, Mount Merapi erupted early that Monday causing a thick-pyroclastic surge that shot 1,500 meters up in the air. We are now due for another event so this one is on schedule for 2017/2018.

Normally, small eruptions occur every two to three years, and larger ones every 10–15 years or so. However, the real major eruptions have occurred in 1006, 1786, 1822, 1872, and 1930. The eruption of 1006 is claimed to have covered all of central Java with ash. It was that volcanic eruption that is believed to have caused the collapse of the Hindu Kingdom of Mataram. This is akin to the destruction of the Minoan society when Thera erupted around 1650BC – today Santorini.

According to our model, the next BIG ONE is probably due in 2028, which may be at the 1006 eruption magnitude.

Here is the list of eruptions since we have consistent recorded history:

• 1548, 1554, 1560, 1584, 1586(?), 1587,
• 1658, 1663, 1672, 1678,
• 1745, 1752, 1755, 1768, 1791, 1797,
• 1807, 1810, 1812-22, 1822-23, 1828, 1832-36, 1837-38, 1840, 1846, 1848(?), 1849, 1854(?), 1861, 1862-64, 1865-71, 1872 (large vulcanian-subplinian eruption VEI:4) , 1872-73, 1878-79, 1883-84, 1885-87, 1888, 1889, 1891-92, 1893, 1894, 1897,
• 1902, 1902-04, 1905, 1906-07, 1908, 1909-13, 1915, 1918, 1920-21, 1922, 1923(?), 1924, 1930-31, 1932, 1933-35, 1939-40, 1942-45, 1948, 1953-58, 1961, 1967-1970, 1971(?), 1972-85, 1986-90, 1992-2002,
• April-July 2006, Oct 2010-2011, 2014, 2018 (May)

Our models of food prices appear to be rising after 2018 moving into 2024

Siberian Volcano Suddenly Erupts

Posted Dec 7, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

While all eyes have been on the volcano in Bali,  the Siberian Shiveluch Volcano erupted yesterday for over a 20 minutes spewing ash 6 miles (10 kilometers) high into the sky. The 1963 eruption in Bali was one of the largest and most devastating eruptions in Indonesia’s history. Nevertheless, it was still only a VEI5. Ideally, an eruption in Bali was due from a cyclical perspective in 2018.

In the case of the Siberian Shiveluch Volcano, there have been significant eruptions taking place in 1854 and 1956. The most recent eruption began again on August 15, 1999, and have continued periodically when on February 27th, 2015, Shiveluch erupted spewing ash into the atmosphere about 30,000 feet crossing the Bering Sea and into Alaska. From a cyclical perspective, this particular volcano was due to start again in 2017.

If we continue to get several volcanoes erupting into 2018, then this should be an active period and it will contribute to Global Cooling. Our models of food prices appear to be rising after 2018 moving into 2024. This would tend to indicate that we may indeed be looking at a rising in the volcanic activity in many places

Minoan collapse was instigated by one of the largest volcanic eruptions in history — Thera (Santorini)

Bonds & Climate Change

Posted Jan 5, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Your Global Market Watch picked the high in bonds perfectly and called it a major high. I have to say, the system you have created monitoring everything is an incredible teaching tool. I can see what you are saying. There is a major global trend that politicians cannot alter and that is why communism fell and socialism is falling now. Do you believe we can advance this time around when it crashes and burns?

Thanks

BM

ANSWER: Believe it or not, I am an eternal optimist; foolish at times. I gave up trying to help behind the curtain because I came to witness how politics works. You can tell a politicians to do this or there will be a crash. They will not listen for a simple reason. No politician can run for office saying, “Vote for me, I saved your job.” You would ask, “How do I know I would have lost it?” Politics is about winning. It is far better to run for office by promising change but never delivering. The political situation is simple. They like the crisis for then they launch investigations to get the guy who caused it. They will never prevent it, for that does not have the same impact at the polls.

Society goes through these convulsions roughly every 309 years or so. They build in intensity and that is what we now face — the Sixth Wave. On the cyclical time line, we are at the point where the collapse of Rome came about with the Sixth Wave back then.

Before that, there was the Minoan Collapse.

This is the third major wave. Either we go into a Dark Age, as took place after the last two groups, or we advance. I would like to think we can do this and reform the way things work. Maybe I am just wrong and we will fail. I realize the only way to take that one giant leap for humankind is if the PEOPLE understand why we never advance and say enough is enough.

So the more people we can move to understand the business cycle and DEMAND change, the better chance we have of taking a leap forward instead of backwards.

The ECM will still exist. We cannot alter that. The volatility (intensity) we can influence perhaps. Of course, the Minoan collapse was instigated by one of the largest volcanic eruptions in history — Thera (Santorini). The fall of Rome came with climate change when everything turned down much colder and resulted in the invasions of the barbarians who were migrating South.

These groups of Six Waves tend to coincide with the collapse in the energy output of the sun. The climate change we are heading into is by no means global warming, it is back down to record cold. That is not good in the least for civilization.